Of the fifty-seven sightings of apparent pterosaurs in which wingspan estimates were given (numerically, like “ten feet”), observed around the world and over many years, from the mid-twentieth century to the present, the graph shows longest wingspans to the right (every three feet, beginning with 3.25 feet; the furthest to the right, “p,” is 45.5 to 48.5 feet); the verticle indicating the number of sightings. It appears perfectly harmonious with the idea that at least most modern species experience growth throughout lifespan, with extremely large individuals being rare. The degree of rarity should be much greater than shown, for the largest modern pterosaurs should be noticed by eyewitnesses much more frequently than smaller ones; small pterosaurs can easily be ignored, for they often are not noticed as anything unusual enough to cause eyewitnesses to take a closer look and see that it is no bird.

The Hoax Potential and Pterosaur Wingspan

The peak, ten sightings, is at wingspan estimates between 3.25 feet and 6.25 feet. On the surface, this appears to clearly refute any possibility of a major hoax-influence, for why would hoaxers give such small “estimates” for the wingspan? Looking a little deeper, if hoaxers were trying to convince people that they had seen Rhamphorhynchoids, smaller wingspans would be more in harmony with fossils of those long-tailed pterosaurs. But looking even closer, we see something else.

Look at the raw data for the left and middle of the graph (wingspan in feet):

2 2 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12.5 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 — According to standard ideas in paleontology (and that is mostly what is mentioned in Western media when it is mentioned at all), only a small percentage of Rhamphorhynchoids attained wingspans over eight feet. But the data on wingspan estimates does not show any sharp decline above six feet, more of a gentle downward slope (fewer eyewitness estimates) into sizes much larger than standard ideas about Rhamphorhynchoid fossil wingspans. If a significant number of hoaxers made some of these fifty-seven estimates, and a significant number of those hoaxers were trying to portray Rhamphorhynchoids, there would have been a steeper decline above seven feet. But in fact, 26% of reports involved wingspans estimated at 9-13 feet, completely out of line for this particular hoax conjecture.

Another Hoax Potential

Consider the most likely cause for someone to play a hoax. A jokester would likely want to shock somebody. What would be most shocking? Would it not be a huge wingspan? But if hoaxers were involved in this way, the data would not show a rather smooth transition from small wingspans into the giant ones. From a significant hoax factor of this kind, we would expect to see a peak at around 15-25 feet (around f, g, and h, on the above graph); but that is not at all what the data shows.

Pterosaur Wingspan, Recent Statistics, Absence of Hoaxes

But first we review this perspective: A number of species of pterosaurs (more than two) live in many areas of this planet, with at least most of them being at least mostly nocturnal and with some of them being witnessed by people in counties in which universal dinosaur and pterosaur extinction is taken for granted. These species include both Pterodactyloids and Rhamphorhynchoids.

Source of Data

I obtained the 98 reports from years of interviewing and research, accepting data from those reports that had both reasonable non-hoax credibility and reasonable potential for coming from actual sightings of living pterosaurs. In about two-thirds of those reports, I was at least somewhat involved; often I was the only interviewer. One example can be mentioned here:

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Pterosaur Sighting

“It was several years ago . . . approximately 5:00 A.M. . . . almost sure it was summer . . . in Philly. [My friend] was dropping me off, and parked. . . . . . about six blocks away . . . we saw something that made our jaws drop. We were like ‘what the h* is that thing?’ This thing didn’t seem to fly quickly. [Its] wingspan was huge. We’d figured at least 20 feet or so. It wasn’t flapping real hard like a sparrow or pigeon does. It almost seemed to sail. It came from the South, and appeared to be heading west [towards the Delaware River].” (From the nonfiction cryptozoology book Live Pterosaurs in America – third edition)

 

Kuhn saw two pterosaurs in Cuba, in 1971

After compiling data and analyzing what many eyewitnesses have reported, over many years, I found that the larger data now available supports the earlier conclusion that a hoax or hoaxes played no significant part in the reports. We now consider the wingspan estimates.

But first we review this perspective: A number of species of pterosaurs (more than two) live in many areas of this planet, with at least most of them being at least mostly nocturnal and with some of them being witnessed by people in counties in which universal dinosaur and pterosaur extinction is taken for granted. These species include both Pterodactyloids and Rhamphorhynchoids. For Westerners unfamiliar with the past seventeen years of cryptozoological investigations of apparent living pterosaurs, this perspective can appear too incredible to consider, but the data on wingspan estimates is in harmony with it and out of harmony with any reference to potential hoaxes.

The recent data comes from 98 sightings, in fourteen countries on five continents (plus two sightings over two seas), with 57 of them including estimates for wingspan. The critical point is that the wingspan estimates are fairly evenly distributed from two feet to forty-six feet. Since these are estimates, not measurements, and the sightings were in various countries of the world and under various conditions (and from eyewitnesses with various skills in estimating wingspans), we could expect a wide range of evenly spaced values, especially within the perspective of a number of species that may have a number of common adult-sizes. That is what we see in this data.

But we would not expect so much of an even spacing if hoaxes played a major part in the sighting reports. Why? Because of commonly-held beliefs about what a modern pterosaur should be like, especially in Western countries (and 68% of these sightings were in the USA).

Let’s consider why somebody would want to perpetrate a hoax: To shock somebody who would believe the hoaxer’s story. That means that at least one thing in the story needs to be shocking, but the story also needs to somehow be believable to somebody. Should somebody fabricate a story about a modern pterosaur, and supply an “estimate” of the wingspan, what would that hoaxer fabricate? The wingspan would need to be big enough to be shocking, but not too big. What about fabricating a wingspan of something around nine to thirteen feet? No, that would not do for a fraud, for it is too close to resembling a large bird, and the potential hoax-victim might say it was a misidentified bird. A hoaxer would more likely choose a wingspan from seventeen feet to twenty-one feet: shocking but not too unbelievable, and not as likely taken for a misidentified bird.

But statistics rule out hoaxes as a significant explanation for pterosaur sightings, for 26% of the 57 reports were of wingspans from nine to thirteen feet and 16% were from seventeen feet to twenty-one feet. If we look at eight-to-twelve-feet, instead, we get 21%; with sixteen-to-twenty-feet giving us 18% of total sighting reports: far different from what we would see from significant hoaxing.

Modern Pterosaurs in Cuba

The sketch of two living pterosaurs (shown above) was drawn by the eyewitness Eskin Kuhn, minutes after his 1971 encounter in Cuba (Gitmo).

Let’s pause from examining reports of Marfa Lights and examine press releases related to reports of living pterosaurs. Some relate to Papau New Guinea, others to the United States.

Apparent Living Pterosaurs Seen By 1400 Americans (Aug 19, 2009)

The “1400” is nothing like a count of eyewitnesses, merely a rough estimate based upon a few, so this is speculative. Nevertheless, the reasoning itself, though crude, strongly suggests that more eyewitnesses of living pterosaurs exist than the number who are brave enough to admit that they saw a living pterosaur.

Whitcomb found that eyewitnesses are hesitant to report their experiences; many are afraid of ridicule or afraid people would think them “crazy.” Most of those who reported their sightings to him remain anonymous in his book; an exception is Susan Wooten . . .

Hoaxes Did Not Produce Reports of Living Pterosaurs in the United States (July 31, 2009)

No hoax or combination of hoaxes caused the overall reports of living pterosaurs in the United States, at least not those reports included in the book Live Pterosaurs in America.

[Whitcomb] found three kinds of evidence disproving any hoax-explanation. . . . estimated wingspan . . . how certain they [the eyewitnesses] were about the absence of feathers. He found that ‘probably’ outnumbered ‘definitely’ by about two-to-one . . . ‘about 80 percent of sighting reports in the United States include a long tail.’ [wingspan, certainty-factor with featherlessness, tail-length]

Psychologist Saw a Living Pterosaur (June 8, 2007)

Brian Hennessy (an Australian who has adopted China or at least their people and culture) sometimes works for the Chongqing University of Medical Sciences, as a psychology consultant. In 1971, he witnessed a large or giant flying creature on Bougainville Island, New Guinea (now part of the nation of Papua New Guinea). The creature had no sign of any feather on its body.

[Hennessy} described the creature as black or dark brown with a "longish narrow tail" and a beak that was "indistinguishable from the head." . . .  Hennessy [in 1971] was . . . unaware that many natives have names for giant flying creatures: One of those names is “ropen.”

Pterodactyl Reported in Papua New Guinea (Aug 14, 2006)

The World War II veteran Duane Hodgkinson had seen, in 1944, a ropen, although he called the giant long-tailed flying creature a “pterodactyl.” This was just west of Finschhafen, in what was then called “New Guinea.”

 Jonathan Whitcomb, of Long Beach, analyzed a videotaped testimony of Hodgkinson in 2005 and maintains that the veteran saw, near Finschhafen, New Guinea, in 1944, what natives of nearby Umboi Island call a ropen.

I also interviewed Hodgkinson extensively in 2004, before my expedition in Papua New Guinea. He is a highly credible eyewitness.

Unmasking a Flying Predator in Texas (Dec 6, 2010)

OK, I can hardly stop gazing into reports of Marfa Lights. This particular press release is based on the conjecture that bioluminescent flying predators are hunting the Big Brown Bat. This is a highly specific conjecture, and seems speculative; but the overall idea of nocturnal flying predators actually makes better sense than many ideas such as “ball lightning” or “earth energies.” Why would non-living flying lights behave so much like a group of predators?

The latest statistics on eyewitness sightings of apparent living pterosaurs in the United States give clear evidence that no combination of hoaxes could have had any significant part in the existence of those reports. On occasion, a critic has brought up the possibility of a hoax, but these new evidences result from detailed analysis of the data, and they refute the insinuation of one or more hoaxes.

No Feathers — How sure?

The way that American eyewitnesses respond to questions about apparent lack of feathers–that shows something significant: 23% were sure that there were no feathers on the pterosaur or pterosaur-like flying animals that they had seen; 37% believed that there were no feathers but were not sure about it. That is the opposite of what would be expected from one or more hoaxes, for hoaxers would have tried to convey an absence of feathers, not a doubt about that absence. On the other hand, eyewitnesses of actual featherless flying creatures would have seen them under a variety of conditions (and eyewitnesses are sometimes far from perfect observers), creating a far-from-ideal way of determing for sure if the creatures seen were featherless; honest eyewitnesses would admit they were not sure. The numbers support actual sightings, no hoaxes.

Long Tails Dominate (Rhamphorhynchoids Live!)

From American eyewitnesses who mentioned a tail or lack of a tail, 86% reported a long tail on the apparent pterosaur (14% report a short tail or no tail). This runs opposite to both common standard-model ideas about pterosaur extinction and common portrayals of pterosaurs in movies and on television. Such an overpowering domination of long tails cannot reasonably be explained in terms of a hoax or hoaxes. In addition, this same dominance of long tails is found in eyewitness testimonies from other areas of the world.

The American World War II veteran Duane Hodgkinson estimated that the tail of the “pterodactyl” that he saw in clear daylight, in 1944 in New Guinea, was at least ten to fifteen feet long (far too long to be any feathers and clearly not any fruit bat). Critics rarely if ever mention this sighting, preferring to discredit nineteenth-century accounts of living pterosaurs