To begin, I have never declared that, of all the reported sightings of apparent living pterosaurs, not one was a hoax. The following question is much better: “Did hoaxes play any significant role in these many reports?” That question can be answered decisively: “No.” It comes from careful analysis of the data of ninety-eight sighting reports, compiled in late-2011, and it confirms an earlier analysis.

Setting aside the wingspan-estimate statistics for the moment (perhaps a stronger disproof of the conjecture of a significant number of hoaxes), let’s consider the featherlessness concept, for we now have more sightings and more data to analyze. Why consider how sure eyewitnesses have been about the lack of feathers in the flying creatures? A hoaxer would have no reason to show doubt about the lack of feathers, for that would be essential to convince somebody that a pterosaur had been observed, therefore, if there were many hoaxers, we would expect a great majority of reports to include a sure conviction of featherlessness. Actual sightings, however, would be expected to have been in various visual conditions making it likely that a significant percentage of reports would indicate uncertainty about featherlessness. (Reports in which feathers were more likely than no-feathers were not considered possible pterosaurs sightings and were not included in this study of ninety-eight eyewitness sightings.)

Of those eyewitnesses giving some indication of the probability of the lack of feathers, 43.5% reported definitely-no-feathers and 56.5% reported only-probably-no-feathers. (Thirty-six of the overall ninety-eight reports gave no indication one way or the other.) This in itself is solid evidence that no significant number of hoaxes were involved in these ninety-eight reports.

Pterosaur Wingspan Estimates and no Hoax

If a significant number of hoaxers made some of these fifty-seven estimates, and a significant number of those hoaxers were trying to portray Rhamphorhynchoids, there would have been a steeper decline above seven feet. But in fact, 26% of reports involved wingspans estimated at 9-13 feet, completely out of line for this particular hoax conjecture.

Hoax of Pterosaurs

With many eyewitnesses, with sightings in many American states, I have found something interesting about reports of featherless appearances. A hoax would be expected to include certainty of no-feathers, for why would a hoaxer want to leave any room for doubt? But the overall descriptions in the many sighting reports I have examined show something different: The definitely-no-feathers are out-numbered by the probably-no-feathers.

An anonymous eyewitness, a truck driver, recently reported to me an apparent pterosaur flying over a highway about 100-150 miles south of Flathead Lake in Montana. He observed it from a great distance for at least a minute, assuming it was a bird. Fortunately, it was heading right for him, so he got a better view of it for a moment: it shot straight up in its flight just before getting close to his truck. As the man looked up, before the flying creature entered a cloud, he saw a cone or horn at the back of the creature’s head.

Part of his description (black flying creature, about the size of a hawk or eagle, with no head showing) brought to my mind a Frigate bird; but that oceanic bird is not normally seen in that area of Montana, and it does not have anything like a cone or horn coming out of the back of its head.

Sighting in Southern Montana

This may not be related, as the flying creature was much larger: wingspan perhaps twenty feet. But the one in southern Montana was also black.

. . . “the largest flying creature I’ve ever seen,” at the Cooney Reservoir in Southern Montana, on Friday, September 4, 2009. . . . Several preliminary signs indicate that this is a genuine sighting, unlikely a hoax. . . . Early [at] night, it flew over them: about 50 feet high; the eyewitness estimated the wingspan: 20 feet. “We could hear the sound of the wings flapping.” Two other eyewitnesses may have seen something similar at different times in the area . . .

Flathead Lake, Montana, Pterosaur Hoax?

Although the above two reports appear to have been honest accounts of actual flying creatures, the following appears to have been a hoax, a video on Youtube.

The first image shows us that the camera is just above the surface of a lake, perhaps as high as ten feet or more above the lake but unlikely over a hundred feet . . . The ninth image gives me the impression that I am looking slightly down at the flying creature; I notice one of the hind legs . . . now is seen above its right wing, and the main part of the head is below the left wing. I have tried to imagine some way that I could be looking up at this flying creature, in this image; my mind rebels against the thought.

Of the fifty-seven sightings of apparent pterosaurs in which wingspan estimates were given (numerically, like “ten feet”), observed around the world and over many years, from the mid-twentieth century to the present, the graph shows longest wingspans to the right (every three feet, beginning with 3.25 feet; the furthest to the right, “p,” is 45.5 to 48.5 feet); the verticle indicating the number of sightings. It appears perfectly harmonious with the idea that at least most modern species experience growth throughout lifespan, with extremely large individuals being rare. The degree of rarity should be much greater than shown, for the largest modern pterosaurs should be noticed by eyewitnesses much more frequently than smaller ones; small pterosaurs can easily be ignored, for they often are not noticed as anything unusual enough to cause eyewitnesses to take a closer look and see that it is no bird.

The Hoax Potential and Pterosaur Wingspan

The peak, ten sightings, is at wingspan estimates between 3.25 feet and 6.25 feet. On the surface, this appears to clearly refute any possibility of a major hoax-influence, for why would hoaxers give such small “estimates” for the wingspan? Looking a little deeper, if hoaxers were trying to convince people that they had seen Rhamphorhynchoids, smaller wingspans would be more in harmony with fossils of those long-tailed pterosaurs. But looking even closer, we see something else.

Look at the raw data for the left and middle of the graph (wingspan in feet):

2 2 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12.5 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 — According to standard ideas in paleontology (and that is mostly what is mentioned in Western media when it is mentioned at all), only a small percentage of Rhamphorhynchoids attained wingspans over eight feet. But the data on wingspan estimates does not show any sharp decline above six feet, more of a gentle downward slope (fewer eyewitness estimates) into sizes much larger than standard ideas about Rhamphorhynchoid fossil wingspans. If a significant number of hoaxers made some of these fifty-seven estimates, and a significant number of those hoaxers were trying to portray Rhamphorhynchoids, there would have been a steeper decline above seven feet. But in fact, 26% of reports involved wingspans estimated at 9-13 feet, completely out of line for this particular hoax conjecture.

Another Hoax Potential

Consider the most likely cause for someone to play a hoax. A jokester would likely want to shock somebody. What would be most shocking? Would it not be a huge wingspan? But if hoaxers were involved in this way, the data would not show a rather smooth transition from small wingspans into the giant ones. From a significant hoax factor of this kind, we would expect to see a peak at around 15-25 feet (around f, g, and h, on the above graph); but that is not at all what the data shows.

Pterosaur Wingspan, Recent Statistics, Absence of Hoaxes

But first we review this perspective: A number of species of pterosaurs (more than two) live in many areas of this planet, with at least most of them being at least mostly nocturnal and with some of them being witnessed by people in counties in which universal dinosaur and pterosaur extinction is taken for granted. These species include both Pterodactyloids and Rhamphorhynchoids.

Source of Data

I obtained the 98 reports from years of interviewing and research, accepting data from those reports that had both reasonable non-hoax credibility and reasonable potential for coming from actual sightings of living pterosaurs. In about two-thirds of those reports, I was at least somewhat involved; often I was the only interviewer. One example can be mentioned here:

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Pterosaur Sighting

“It was several years ago . . . approximately 5:00 A.M. . . . almost sure it was summer . . . in Philly. [My friend] was dropping me off, and parked. . . . . . about six blocks away . . . we saw something that made our jaws drop. We were like ‘what the h* is that thing?’ This thing didn’t seem to fly quickly. [Its] wingspan was huge. We’d figured at least 20 feet or so. It wasn’t flapping real hard like a sparrow or pigeon does. It almost seemed to sail. It came from the South, and appeared to be heading west [towards the Delaware River].” (From the nonfiction cryptozoology book Live Pterosaurs in America – third edition)

 

Kuhn saw two pterosaurs in Cuba, in 1971

After compiling data and analyzing what many eyewitnesses have reported, over many years, I found that the larger data now available supports the earlier conclusion that a hoax or hoaxes played no significant part in the reports. We now consider the wingspan estimates.

But first we review this perspective: A number of species of pterosaurs (more than two) live in many areas of this planet, with at least most of them being at least mostly nocturnal and with some of them being witnessed by people in counties in which universal dinosaur and pterosaur extinction is taken for granted. These species include both Pterodactyloids and Rhamphorhynchoids. For Westerners unfamiliar with the past seventeen years of cryptozoological investigations of apparent living pterosaurs, this perspective can appear too incredible to consider, but the data on wingspan estimates is in harmony with it and out of harmony with any reference to potential hoaxes.

The recent data comes from 98 sightings, in fourteen countries on five continents (plus two sightings over two seas), with 57 of them including estimates for wingspan. The critical point is that the wingspan estimates are fairly evenly distributed from two feet to forty-six feet. Since these are estimates, not measurements, and the sightings were in various countries of the world and under various conditions (and from eyewitnesses with various skills in estimating wingspans), we could expect a wide range of evenly spaced values, especially within the perspective of a number of species that may have a number of common adult-sizes. That is what we see in this data.

But we would not expect so much of an even spacing if hoaxes played a major part in the sighting reports. Why? Because of commonly-held beliefs about what a modern pterosaur should be like, especially in Western countries (and 68% of these sightings were in the USA).

Let’s consider why somebody would want to perpetrate a hoax: To shock somebody who would believe the hoaxer’s story. That means that at least one thing in the story needs to be shocking, but the story also needs to somehow be believable to somebody. Should somebody fabricate a story about a modern pterosaur, and supply an “estimate” of the wingspan, what would that hoaxer fabricate? The wingspan would need to be big enough to be shocking, but not too big. What about fabricating a wingspan of something around nine to thirteen feet? No, that would not do for a fraud, for it is too close to resembling a large bird, and the potential hoax-victim might say it was a misidentified bird. A hoaxer would more likely choose a wingspan from seventeen feet to twenty-one feet: shocking but not too unbelievable, and not as likely taken for a misidentified bird.

But statistics rule out hoaxes as a significant explanation for pterosaur sightings, for 26% of the 57 reports were of wingspans from nine to thirteen feet and 16% were from seventeen feet to twenty-one feet. If we look at eight-to-twelve-feet, instead, we get 21%; with sixteen-to-twenty-feet giving us 18% of total sighting reports: far different from what we would see from significant hoaxing.

Modern Pterosaurs in Cuba

The sketch of two living pterosaurs (shown above) was drawn by the eyewitness Eskin Kuhn, minutes after his 1971 encounter in Cuba (Gitmo).